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Mortgage rates are significantly higher than they were at the start of this year, but they pulled back slightly last week after several weeks of straight increases. "First-time homebuyers account for roughly half of purchase loans, and the government lending programs are an important source of financing for these homebuyers. The dip in rates caused refinance demand to increase 5% for the week, although it was still 6% lower than the year-earlier week. Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home rose 2% for the week but were still 17% lower than the same week a year earlier. Mortgage rates fell further to start this week.
Persons: Mike Fratantoni, MBA's, Fratantoni Organizations: Federal Reserve's, Federal Housing Administration Locations: Manhattan, New York City
A collection of so-called momentum misers are already seeing their 2024 earnings estimates revised downward and the stocks have few reasons that could drive them higher, according to Julian Emanuel, Evercore ISI managing director and head of equity, derivatives and quantitative strategy. Lowe's first-quarter results are due out on May 21, but 2024 earnings estimates have fallen 4.7% year to date, according to Evercore. LOW YTD mountain Lowe's stock. MicroStrategy also made the Evercore list. Still, its 2024 earnings estimates have been revised down by more than 116% since the year began.
Persons: Julian Emanuel, Emanuel, Russell, Lowe's, Morgan Stanley, Simeon Gutman, Gutman, MicroStrategy Organizations: ISI, Coterra Energy, Citigroup
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFiscal spending offset much of the Fed's quantitative tightening, says Guggenheim's Anne WalshHosted by Brian Sullivan, “Last Call” is a fast-paced, entertaining business show that explores the intersection of money, culture and policy. Tune in Monday through Friday at 7 p.m. ET on CNBC.
Persons: Guggenheim's Anne Walsh, Brian Sullivan, Organizations: CNBC
Investors in Blackstone's real-estate fund asked for their money back in droves — more than $15 billion to date. Unless the real-estate market comes roaring back, analysts warn, BREIT could end up shrinking to a fraction of its current size, leaving the fund's investors holding the bag. Only 3% of BREIT's holdings are in office buildings, which have been ground zero for commercial real estate pain. Advertisement"Not all real estate is created equal," BREIT boasted in a recent letter to stockholders, "and where you invest matters." "Commercial real estate is a slow burn," Brian Moynihan, the CEO of Bank of America, recently observed.
Persons: Blackstone, , BREIT, REITs, Steve Schwarzman, Jeenah, Nate Koppikar, Craig McCann, BREIT's, Chilton, ​ ​ McCann, McCann, Horacio Villalobos, That's, Donald Trump, Robert Chang, Schwarzman, Michael Blackshire, Phil Bak, Stephen Schwarzman, Shannon Stapleton, Brian Moynihan, it's, It's Organizations: BREIT, Orso Partners, Securities Exchange Commission, Blackstone, SEC, Chilton Capital Management, SLCG Economics Consulting, Publicly, University of California, Regents, Armada Investors, Reuters, Bank of America Locations: BREIT, Lisbon, Fideres
Read previewThe Seed 100 and Seed 40 lists are derived from a statistical analysis of investor track records. Incubated by Tribe Capital, Termina is an AI-software platform that powers quantitative due diligence for leading investors around the world. Show intermediate signs of future success with seed investments that consistently receive follow-on investment. Ten percent of all seed investors in scope were women, up from 8% when the first Seed 100 was released in 2021. The result in just one year is the largest-ever rebalancing of how investors allocate seed capital across sectors.
Persons: , We've, We're, OpenAI, Termina, Jake Ellowitz Organizations: Service, Business, Tribe Capital Locations: USA, Canada
Arone spoke with Before the Bell to outline three things about markets right now “that investors should know, but probably don’t.”1. You write that investors might be surprised to hear that small- and mid-cap stocks have outperformed large-cap stocks over the past five months. Why do you think that’s surprising, and what does it say about markets? Most investors think that the S&P 500 has been outperforming everything else, largely dragged up by the performance of the Magnificent 7 (Amazon, Tesla, Alphabet, Meta, Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia). The big beneficiaries of that, I think, would be a surprise for most investors — those mid-cap stocks and small-cap stocks.
Persons: , Michael Arone, Arone, That’s, that’s, Jerome Powell, I’m, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, Charlie Munger, Buffett, Greg Abel, Ajit Jain, Munger’s, Read, Parija Kavilanz Organizations: New, New York CNN, Wall, Federal Reserve, Bell, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Treasury, Fed, Berkshire Hathaway, Oracle, Ikea Locations: New York, Berkshire, Woodstock, Nebraska, Omaha
Google Cloud, one of the fund's cloud providers, developed new technologies that drew a full room of spectators at Google Cloud Next. When Google Cloud clients request GPUs through DWS, the platform requires clients to specify the region, the machine type and count of machines, and runtime duration. Knowing how many resources a given client needs allows Google Cloud to provision capacity more granularly, which "unlocks additional capacity," Mateo said. As a cloud provider for many financial firms, Google Cloud benefits from helping its clients run these models because many research platforms are hosted on Google's public cloud. In addition to Two Sigma, Citadel Securities has its research platform on Google Cloud.
Persons: Alex Hays, Hays, Sigma's Hays, Mateo, Dax, They'd, it's, Cook Organizations: Sigma, Google, Wall Street, Nvidia, prioritizes, Citadel Securities Locations: Las Vegas, Cook
Stocks are in a "late secular bull market," BofA's Michael Hartnett said in a Friday research note. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe bull market that's pushed stock prices higher for the past year and a half will probably end in tears, Bank of America's Michael Hartnett warned. Equities are in a "late secular bull market" that likely "ends with [a] bubble and/or recession," the bank's chief investment strategist wrote in a Friday research note seen by Business Insider. Hartnett's bearish stance clashes with the view held by BofA's head of US equity and quantitative strategy, Savita Subramanian, who has predicted that stocks' bull market will last.
Persons: BofA's Michael Hartnett, , of America's Michael Hartnett, Hartnett's, Hartnett, Marko Kolanovic, BofA's, Savita Subramanian, stagflation Organizations: Service, of America's, Business, JPMorgan
But even after two years of quantitative tightening, the amount of bonds and securities that the Fed still retains is stupendous. Quantitative tightening is a perilous operation. Earlier attempts — notably, in 2019 — disrupted financial markets. The slow pace of quantitative tightening is partly responsible for the Fed’s inability to contribute to the national budget. That’s because the Fed has also raised interest rates, which move in the opposite direction of bond prices.
Persons: Organizations: Fed, Treasury, Silicon Valley Bank Locations: United States
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by less than one basis point to 4.5975%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 4.9393% after rising by less than one basis point. U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Thursday as investors digested the outcome of the latest Federal Reserve meeting. Investors considered the path ahead for interest rates after the Federal Reserve's meeting concluded on Wednesday. Policymakers also provided some guidance about the outlook for interest rates, with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicating that it was unlikely for the next interest rate decision to be a hike.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: Treasury, Reserve, Federal, Fed
The sell-off that battered stocks in April probably won't stretch into May, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee. AdvertisementThe stock market's sell-off could be over, and five bullish signals the Fed gave at its latest policy meeting are setting the stage for gains in May, according to Fundstrat's head of research Tom Lee. Investors are now pricing in a 69% chance the Fed could rate rates once or twice by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Stock investors have already perked up on a brighter outlook for Fed rate cuts this year. Stocks reacted positively to the Wednesday Fed meeting.
Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, , Powell, presser, Stocks Organizations: Service, Markets, Fed, stagflation, Investors
With its decision to hold the line on rates, the committee in its post-meeting statement noted a "lack of further progress" in getting inflation back down to its 2% target. The process has resulted in the central bank balance sheet to come down to about $7.4 trillion, or $1.5 trillion less than its peak around mid-2022. Under the new plan, the Fed will reduce the monthly cap on Treasurys to $25 billion from $60 billion. The reduction of the balance sheet roll-off, then, can be seen as a slight easing measure. The Fed uses interest rates to control the flow of money, with the intent that higher rates will dampen demand and thus help reduce prices.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell Organizations: WASHINGTON, Federal Reserve, Fed, Market, Dow Jones Industrial, Treasury Locations: U.S
Central bankers chose to keep interest rates steady, and Powell said a rate hike was "unlikely." Fed officials chose to keep interest rates unchanged, in line with the market's expectations. Investors have been fretting over higher interest rates as inflation came in hotter-than-expected throughout the first quarter. The odds of a Fed rate hike in June are less than 1%. Calling that out in the first paragraph is tantamount to saying that interest rate cuts are not coming soon."
Persons: Powell, , Greg McBride, Bankrate, Charlie Ripley Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Fed, Allianz Investment Management
New York CNN —Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy decision will likely be pretty boring for investors — officials are widely expected to keep interest rates the same, just as they have since July 2023. They think that the Fed may curtail its quantitative tightening (QT) program — that’s the selling off of its assets to decrease money supply and increase interest rates — by as much as half. Those purchases ended up pushing down interest rates in certain parts of the economy, like housing and auto sales. That led to a “repo crisis”, where the interest rates for overnight loans between banks spiked unusually high. That’s because a taper should send bond prices higher, and interest rates lower.
Persons: there’s, Jamie Dimon, Jerome Powell doesn’t, Krishna Guha, Marco Casiraghi, , Bill Adams, Biden, reclassify, General Merrick Garland, Xochitl Hinojosa, , Nancy Mace, Earl Blumenauer, ” Read, Zhao, Allison Morrow, ” Binance Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Fed, JPMorgan Chase, Comerica Bank, Bank of America, CNN, US Department of Justice, Federal Register, Congress, Associated Press, Republican, CZ, Binance, Bloomberg Locations: New York, South Carolina, Oregon, Seattle
High-yield savings accountsThe average interest rate on regular bank savings accounts is roughly 0.5% but can run as low as 0.01% at the biggest banks. By contrast, the average on high-yield savings accounts is well over 4%, according to DepositAccounts.com. If you leave it parked in a regular savings account at 0.5%, you’ll get $50 in interest for a year. As with any savings account, banks can lower the rate they offer — also known as the APY — at any time. Money market accounts and money market fundsAlthough money market deposit accounts and money market mutual funds are both generating yields competitive with the best high-yield savings accounts, there are important differences.
Persons: , It’s, , Greg McBride, you’ll, McBride, , ” McBride, Ben Bakkum, Collin Martin, Martin Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, FDIC, National Credit Union Share Insurance, Securities Investor Protection Corporation, Treasury, Fed, Schwab Center, Financial Research Locations: New York, Schwab.com, United States
Recent commentary from policymakers and on Wall Street indicates there's not much else the committee can do at this point. But they're still hopeful that they will be in a position to cut rates later." Markets actually have held up pretty well since Powell made those comments on April 16, though stocks sold off Tuesday ahead of the meeting. Some on Wall Street, though, are still hopeful that inflation data will show progress and allow the central bank to cut. The Wall Street bank's economists are preparing for the possibility that the Fed could be on hold for longer, particularly if inflation continues to surprise to the upside.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Kent Nishimura, Guy LeBas, Janney Montgomery Scott, they're, Powell, We've, there's, specter, LeBas, There's, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, , Donald Trump, Goldman, Mericle Organizations: Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs Committee, Getty, Federal Reserve, Federal, Market Committee, Fed, Dow Jones, Department, Labor Department, Republican
Ukraine’s DeepState monitoring group, which updates daily changes in frontline positions, shows Russian forces pushing forward in eight different locations along 20-25 kms of frontline in one 24-hour period. Military bloggers on both sides broadly agree that Russian forces have crossed a water course and taken control of the settlements of Semenivka and Berdychi. Heavy fighting continues there, but the situation is under the control of the (Ukrainian) Armed Forces,” he said. Russian forces are also making headway west of Donetsk city, entering the industrial town of Krasnohorivka from the south and the east. “Without (its) manpower advantage, Russia’s artillery and airpower advantage would not be sufficient for Russia to make gains on the battlefield.
Persons: Vladimir Putin’s, Myroshnykov, Stringer, ” DeepState, Muscovites, , Nazar Voloshyn, , DeepState, , Voloshyn, Narciso Contreras, Anatolii Stepanov, Rob Lee, ” Lee Organizations: CNN, Anadolu, Getty, ) Defense Forces, Armed Forces, , Foreign Policy Research Institute Locations: Ukraine, Kharkiv, United States, Avdiivka, Ocheretyne, Donetsk, Semenivka, Soloviove, Keramik, Ukrainian, Karlivka, DeepState, Russian, Kyslivka, Krasnohorivka, , AFP, Moscow, – greenlit, “ Russian, Russia
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBofA's Savita Subramanian: More to the S&P 500 than just semiconductors and megacap tech companiesSavita Subramanian, BofA Securities head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, state of the economy, the Fed's interest rate outlook, and more.
Persons: Subramanian Organizations: BofA Securities
Landing a tech job on Wall Street has never been simple, but it's even less so today. But widespread layoffs in the tech sector have created a "glut of supply" of "mediocre talent," recruiters told Business Insider. That's not stopping Wall Street firms from tapping external recruiters to find technologists. Given the private nature of their work, recruiters usually keep their client list and searches close to the vest. For that reason, the specific clients most of these recruiters work with are not named.
Persons: we've, Ben Hodzic, Selby Jennings, Wall
CNN —The Biden administration is preparing a new aid package for Ukraine that is expected to be worth around $1 billion, multiple sources familiar with the matter told CNN, and is set to be approved by President Joe Biden after the Senate passes a new foreign aid funding bill as soon as Tuesday afternoon. In briefings to Congress in recent weeks, administration officials have indicated that the US will likely send Ukraine long-range ATACMS, or Army Tactical Missile Systems, for the first time as part of the new aid package, three of the sources said. Ukrainian officials have been asking the US both in private and in public for the long-range missile to target deeper behind Russian lines. Broadly, Russia has maintained a “significant quantitative advantage” over Ukraine in terms of munitions, manpower and equipment, a NATO official said earlier this month. The military aid will be sourced from the US’ own stockpiles through a funding mechanism known as presidential drawdown authority, or PDA, and will be the first PDA package for Ukraine since March.
Persons: CNN —, Biden, Joe Biden, Bill Burns, Chris Cavoli, Sen, Mark Warner, we’ve, ” Warner, Bradley, ” Celeste Wallander Organizations: CNN, Senate, Army Tactical Missile Systems, US, CIA, NATO, Senate Intelligence, CBS, Pentagon, White, Command Locations: Ukraine, Moscow, Europe, Russia
A City Tries to Measure the Violence It’s Preventing
  + stars: | 2024-04-22 | by ( Mark Obbie | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +31 min
Headway A City Tries to Measure the Violence It’s Preventing In Baton Rouge, a public safety experiment could help to answer a critical question: Do community efforts to reduce street violence work? Like Ms. Robinson, Ms. Tate-Alexander, 48, raised her family in Baton Rouge. Baton Rouge became the first city outside New Jersey to be tutored in the Newark method. Calming the urge to retaliateBy June 2021, when Ms. Tate-Alexander started assembling the street team, Ms. Robinson joined up. At first, Ms. Robinson and Ms. Tate-Alexander seemed wary when I asked about him.
Persons: Angel Hawkins, Liz Robinson, Sateria Tate, Alexander, Tamikka, Liz, Louis Robinson’s, Louis Jr, Robinson, , , ’ ”, Louis, Louis BadAzz, , Louis Robinson Jr, , Murphy Paul, Paul, Sharon Weston Broome, Alton Sterling, , Karan Deep Singh, Kathleen Flynn, Biden, Nina Revoyr, Ms, Tate, Aqeela Sherrills, Sherrills, Terrell, Mr, Aqeela, Courtney Scott, . Tate, ” Ms, Gerald Haynes, Haynes, hotheads, Khoury Brown, Geaux, he’s, Geaux Yella, Darius Crockett, Crockett, Kayla Atkins, Markel, Atkins, ” Mr, “ I’m, “ I’ll, ” Markel, Atkins’s, Gary Slutkin, Jeffrey A, Butts, John Jay, Dr, Scott, “ We’re, It’s, They’ll, that’s, interventionists, Stacy Adams fedora, George Floyd, Weeks, brutalized, Paul’s, Thomas S, Morse, Dy’Lan Fillmore, Mitchell, Fillmore, Robinson’s Organizations: The New York Times, Army, Louisiana State Police, Police, Baton Rouge Police Department, Centers for Disease Control, National Institute for Criminal, Ballmer Group, Baton, Bloods, Biden White House, Markel, Research, John, John Jay College of Criminal, Statistics, University of California, Newark, Metropolitan, Murphy Paul Rally, Mr Locations: Baton Rouge, La, Iraq, Afghanistan, Black, United States, , Federal, Newark, N.J, Watts, Los Angeles, New Jersey, Chicago, Baton
Amazon's packaging has been getting more efficient in recent years, thanks to AI. The e-commerce giant built an AI model that interprets pictures and text to choose the best shipping materials. The tool is key in helping the company cut out 2 million tons of plastic and cardboard since 2015. Sign up for our newsletter to get the latest on the culture & business of sustainability — delivered weekly to your inbox. Frequent Amazon shoppers have almost certainly received a shipment with a single small item in a comically large box.
Organizations: Service Locations: North America
Hard-to-handicap geopolitical conflict never helps, even if it rarely serves as the key swing factor in a market trend. .SPX 1Y mountain S & P 500, 1-year And then there was simply the elevated valuation and over-optimistic sentiment that had built up over that five-month, 28% rally that culminated at the end of March. Over the long span of time, about 40% of all 5% market pullbacks deepened into full 10% corrections. A 10%-ish correction from the S & P 500 high of 5254 would pull the index down below 4800, the former record high from early 2022, and so would be a test of the first-quarter breakout. Last week's 3% decline took the index back to Feb 21 and thereby closed the "Nvidia gap," the 100-point S & P 500 pop the day after Nvidia's blowout fourth-quarter earnings report.
Persons: Warren Pies, Jerome Powell Organizations: Nasdaq, 3Fourteen, Nvidia, Big Tech, Treasury, Silicon Valley Bank Locations: Silicon
If the 10-year bond rate goes up 2%, every asset on the planet, including real estate, is worth 20% less. Advertisement"If things stay where they are, we have the soft landing that seems to be embedded in the marketplace, the real estate will muddle through. They won't muddle through under higher rates with a recession. That would be tough for a lot of folks, not just real estate, if that happens." Jeenah Moon / Reuters"We're in a period that comes after financial repression, where we'll have some inflation and some real rates.
Persons: , Wall, shouldn't, Jamie Dimon, I'm, David Solomon, Goldman Sachs, Jane Fraser, Julian Restrepo, Larry Fink, Stephen Schwarzman, Ted Pick, Morgan Stanley, Jeenah, Michael Santomassimo, Wells, Alistair Borthwick, that's Organizations: Service, Wall Street's, Business, titans, JPMorgan, Citigroup, AP, BlackRock, Blackstone, Bank of America Locations: East, Ukraine
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIndia is a beneficiary of some of China's problems, investment management firm saysArjun Jayaraman, head of quantitative research at Causeway Capital Management, says foreign direct investments into India are "a tailwind to the already strong structural tailwinds that India has."
Persons: Arjun Jayaraman Organizations: Causeway Capital Management Locations: India
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